Predicting non-stationary processes

نویسندگان

  • Daniil Ryabko
  • Marcus Hutter
چکیده

1 Suppose we are given two probability measures on the set of one-way infinite finite-alphabet sequences. Consider the question when one of the measures predicts the other, that is, when conditional probabilities converge (in a certain sense), if one of the measures is chosen to generate the sequence. This question may be considered a refinement of the problem of sequence prediction in its most general formulation: for a given class of probability measures, does there exist a measure which predicts all of the measures in the class? To address this problem, we find some conditions on local absolute continuity which are sufficient for prediction and generalize several different notions that are known to be sufficient for prediction. We also formulate some open questions to outline a direction for finding the conditions on classes of measures for which prediction is possible.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Some New Methods for Prediction of Time Series by Wavelets

Extended Abstract. Forecasting is one of the most important purposes of time series analysis. For many years, classical methods were used for this aim. But these methods do not give good performance results for real time series due to non-linearity and non-stationarity of these data sets. On one hand, most of real world time series data display a time-varying second order structure. On th...

متن کامل

Divisive Strategies for Predicting Non-Autonomous and Mixed Systems

We consider the problem of predicting time series originating from non-stationary and from mixed dynamical systems. It is shown that the complexity of nding representations for the dynamics of such systems can be drastically reduced if their composite nature is taken into account. Two paradigmatic cases are discussed and their solutions presented: jump processes and stationary mixtures. Example...

متن کامل

SHIFT OPERATOR FOR PERIODICALLY CORRELATED PROCESSES

The existence of shift for periodically correlated processes and its boundedness are investigated. Spectral criteria for these non-stationary processes to have such shifts are obtained.

متن کامل

Multi-robot active sensing of non-stationary gaussian process-based environmental phenomena

A key challenge of environmental sensing and monitoring is that of sensing, modeling, and predicting large-scale, spatially correlated environmental phenomena, especially when they are unknown and non-stationary. This paper presents a decentralized multi-robot active sensing (DEC-MAS) algorithm that can efficiently coordinate the exploration of multiple robots to gather the most informative obs...

متن کامل

Multi-robot active sensing of non-stationary Gaussian process-based environmental phenomena Citation

A key challenge of environmental sensing and monitoring is that of sensing, modeling, and predicting large-scale, spatially correlated environmental phenomena, especially when they are unknown and non-stationary. This paper presents a decentralized multi-robot active sensing (DEC-MAS) algorithm that can efficiently coordinate the exploration of multiple robots to gather the most informative obs...

متن کامل

Stationary and non-stationary autoregressive processes with external inputs for predicting trends in water quality.

An autoregressive approach for the prediction of water quality trends in systems subject to varying meteorological conditions and short observation periods is discussed. Under these conditions, the dynamics of the system can be reliably forecast, provided their internal processes are understood and characterized independently of the external inputs. A methodology based on stationary and non-sta...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Appl. Math. Lett.

دوره 21  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2008